AUGUST 22, 2012BY: DEAN CHAMBERS
A state-by-state analysis of the presidential race conducted by two University of Colorado professors predicts that Mitt Romney will be our next president. The analysis, released today, by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, is based on economic and other factors within each of the 50 states. This same study has correctly predicted the winners of the last eight presidential elections, starting with the 1980 election won by Ronald Reagan.
The press release on the study says, the “prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.”
The analysis is summarized as follows, “President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.”
Obama winning 218 electoral votes would means Romney wins the remaining 320 out of 538 electoral votes.
Professor Bickers said President Obama is likely to be defeated for reelection this fall, saying, “Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble.”
The authors of the study said an incumbent Democratic president loses advantages of incumbency when unemployment hits the level of 5.6 percent. Current official unemployment is reported at 8.3 percent. They said the study will be updated with additional economic data available in September and that some of the states closed to 50-50 status might change upon that revision of the study.